@RISK is used to analyze risk and uncertainty in a wide variety of industries. From the financial to the scientific, anyone who faces uncertainty in their quantitative analyses can benefit from @RISK.
@RISK ProfessionalDesigned for professional-grade problems in any industry, @RISK Professional is perfect for most commercial uses. It provides a balance of advanced analysis and point-and-click ease of use, and includes:
- @RISK Library: A SQL database for storing and sharing with others @RISK distribution functions, model components, and simulation results.
- Integrated distribution fitting: Defines distribution functions for you based on historical or industry data.
- Excel Developer Kit (XDK): Automate and customize @RISK for Excel through a complete library of commands and functions that let you control every aspect of @RISK in your spreadsheet. Add @RISK for Excel to any custom application.
- Stress Analysis: Lets you control the range that is sampled from a distribution function, enabling you to see how different scenarios affect your bottom line without changing your model.
- Advanced Sensitivity Analysis: Lets you see how changes in any input—distributions or regular values—affect simulation results.
- @RISK Goal Seek: Uses multiple simulations to find an input value that achieves a target simulation result you specify.
@RISK IndustrialDesigned for your largest, most complex models, @RISK Industrial includes everything in @RISK Professional, plus the following:
- RISKOptimizer: Combines Monte Carlo simulation with sophisticated optimization techniques to find the best combination of factors that lead to a desired result under uncertain conditions. Use RISKOptimizer for resource allocation, scheduling, investment, route planning, and other types of tricky problems where you need to determine the best combination of inputs to maximize a return, minimize a cost, or achieve a specific target. RISKOptimizer uses genetic algorithms and Optquest solving methods so you’ll be sure to have the right engine for any type of problem.
- Simulation of Time-series Forecasts: @RISK offers a set of functions for simulating time series processes, or values that change over time. Any future projection of time series values has inherent uncertainty, and @RISK lets you account for that uncertainty by looking at the whole range of possible time series projections in your model. This is particularly useful in financial modeling and portfolio simulation. There are functions available for 17 different statistical time series models, including ARMA, GBM, GARCH, and others. These functions are entered as array functions in Excel. @RISK also provides new windows for fitting historical time series data to these new functions. The results can be animated to show the behavior of your time series during simulation. All this is integrated into the existing @RISK interface.
- Full Multi-CPU support: Speed up simulations with parallel processing by using all multi-core processors and available CPUs within a single machine.
How RISKOptimizer WorksStandard optimization programs are good at finding the best combination of values to maximize or minimize the outcome of a spreadsheet model given certain constraints. However, these programs are not set up to handle “uncontrolled” uncertainty, and require static values for any factor that is not being adjusted by the optimization. This forces modelers into making decisions based on overly simplistic or inaccurate results.Add Simulation to Optimization Suppose you have several factories and want to find the best locations to manufacture different products to meet demand in nearby cities. You want to maximize profits and minimize shipping costs. This is a straightforward optimization problem where you want to assign manufacturing volume, by product, to different factories. But key factors out of your control are uncertain: shipping costs, demand, etc. Traditionally you would have had to guess at the uncertain factors and hope for the best. With RISKOptimizer, those uncertain factors are represented with probability distribution functions (like Normal, Triang, etc.) so that a Monte Carlo simulation can be run for each trial allocation of manufacturing volume. In this way, you can maximize the mean of the simulated output – say profits – an account for risk during optimization.Add Optimization to Simulation@RISK uses Monte Carlo simulation to account for the uncertainty in models and determine the probability of various outcomes occurring. But Monte Carlo simulation does not deal with decision variables whose values you can control. It handles random, uncertain values at a single state of those decision variables.Suppose you are developing a new product and want to determine whether or not this venture will pay off in the long run. You build a standard spreadsheet model to calculate the profit, replacing uncertain factors like demand and material costs with @RISK functions. Then you realize that some of your assumptions are based on using specific vendors and production methods to construct your product. There may be other vendors and methods available to you that could save money. It's also possible that some production methods may make shipping costs unattractive. With @RISK alone, you could run multiple simulations and compare results - but did you try every possible combination of inputs? With RISKOptimizer, you can try different combinations of vendors and methods to maximize your profits.Using RISKOptimizer involves three simple steps:1. Set Up Your Model. The RISKOptimizer Model window provides one-stop setup for all optimization problems. Here you specify the target cell and statistic, identify cells to adjust, and define constraints. Adjustable cells and constraints support cell ranges for easy setup and changes, while target cells can be maximized, minimized, or approach a specific goal.Defining Ranges and Stopping Conditions When defining adjustable cells, you can specify the maximum and minimum boundaries of ranges of cells directly in Excel, greatly simplifying setup and making changes easy. For example, you can tell RISKOptimizer to adjust cells B1:B5, with a minimum value for each in A1:A5, and a maximum value for each in C1:C5. Multiple groups of cells may be specified, with multiple ranges in each group.You must also define constraints in your model. For example, there may be limited resources which must be modeled. When defining constraints (hard or soft), you can also specify minimums and maximums with cell ranges.Finally, set stopping conditions for your optimization, telling RISKOptimizer when to stop each simulation and when to halt the optimization as a whole.Solving Methods RISKOptimizer uses six different solving methods that you can specify to find the optimal combination of adjustable cells. Different methods are used to solve different types of problems. The six methods are:
- Recipe - a set of variables which can change independently.
- Grouping - a collection of elements to be placed into groups.
- Order - an ordered list of elements.
- Budget - recipe algorithm, but total is kept constant.
- Project - order algorithm, but some elements precede others.
- Schedule - group algorithm, but assign elements to blocks of time while meeting constraints.
Part of the DecisionTools Suite@RISK is available by itself or as part of the DecisionTools Suite, Palisade’s complete risk and decision analysis toolkit. The DecisionTools Suite includes PrecisionTree for decision trees, TopRank for what-if analysis, NeuralTools andStatTools for data analysis, and more. @RISK is fully compatible with all DecisionTools programs and can be combined with them for greater insight and analysis.» More about The DecisionTools Suite - Save Over 50% When You Buy the SuiteWhen you buy the DecisionTools Suite, you save over 50% versus buying all components individually. The best analyses at a great price—with the DecisionTools Suite.
Site Licenses – Provide software access to everyone at a particular physical location. Enterprise Licenses – Provide access to the software throughout an organization or division regardless of physical location.Benefits of corporate licenses include:The latest software version - for everyone. With current maintenance, all users work with the same current version, and upgrades are handled on the same corporate level to maintain this consistency and avoid compatibility issues.Encourages better decisions throughout the organization. Corporate licenses encourage experimentation with powerful Palisade software by all employees. The more people performing quantitative decision analysis, the better your decision will become.Elimination of IT compliance issues. A corporate license relieves IT personnel of having to monitor software usage to ensure compliance with software license agreements.Streamlined procurement process eliminates red tape. By procuring software through a single purchasing contract, you can avoid departmental budget constraints, differing purchasing procedures, and other administrative hurdles.
|Oil and Gas Corporations|
|AmocoAnadarko PetroleumBHPBPBlade Energy CDX GasChevronTexacoCinergy Conoco||Duke EnergyExxonMobilFluor Daniel IHS Energy National Oilwell VarcoNIPSCO RiskAdvisory (Canada) Petrobras (Brasil)PetroCanada||Phillips PetroleumSchlumbergerShellStatOilTeikoku Oil Co, Ltd. (Japan)Unocal|
|ACE Bermuda Insurance Co. Ltd.ACE USAAEGIS Insurance Services, IncAetna Chile Seguros de VidaAFLACAllianz Insurance CompanyAllstate Insurance CompanyAmerican Re-Insurance CompanyAmerican Family InsuranceAon Non-Marine Reinsurance LtdAon Re IrelandAon Risk Services Japan Ltd.Arab-Malaysian Assurance Berhad Arkwright Mutual InsuranceAspinall & Associates Chaucer Insurance Plc (UK)C.G.U. Insurance S.A. (South Africa)CNA Reinsurance Europe Ltd||Colonial Insurance (Bermuda)Erc Frankona Reinsurance AS General ReinsuranceG.I. Actuarial (UK)ING Reinsurance Co Intl LtdKemper InsuranceK.L.P. Insurance (Norway)PMA ReLondon Life & CasualtyManulife FinancialMaritime Life InsuranceMMI Insurance (Australia)NAC ReinsuranceNational Grange Mutual Ins. New York LifeNorth Carolina Department of Insurance||Northwestern MutualLifePartner Reinsurance CompanyPearl Assurance Plc (UK)Penn National Insurance Co.PMA ReProgressiveRenaissance Reinsurance St. Paul Reinsurance Co. LtdState Farm InsuranceStandard & Poor's InsuranceSwiss Reinsurance Texas Builders Insurance, Co.Renaissance ReinsuranceTransatlantic Reinsurance Comp Willis FaberZurich Insurance Group (Switzerland)|
|Abacus TechnologyADMAMDAT&TBank of AmericaBankers TrustBC HydroBechtelBecton DickinsonBlack and DeckerBlue Cross Blue Shield of FloridaBoeingBombardierBorden Foods Co.Borg WarnerBristol-Myers SquibbCenter for Disease ControlCentre for Traffic and TransportChase Manhattan BankCinergy CitibankCoca-ColaColgate PalmoliveCoopers & LybrandCorningCorus Cummins Engine Corp. CVRD BrasilDeloitte Tohmatsu Corp. Finance Co. (Japan)Dow ChemicalEastman ChemicaleBayEmployer's Reinsurance Corp.Ernst & YoungFacebook Federal Highway Administration Fluor Daniel Ford Motor CompanyGannett Fleming GapGEICOGeneral Electric||GoodyearGRE Insurance GroupHalcrow Group Ltd Harley-DavidsonHatch AssociatesHer Majesty’s Prison Service Hewlett-PackardHitachiHoneywell InternationalHospital Clinic Barcelona Hughes AircraftIBMImpex Corporation (Japan)ING - Equitable LifeIHS Energy Istria Ltd Japan Food Research Labs John DeereJohnson & JohnsonKatrina Disaster Response Kennecott Utah Copper Kirin Brewery Company, Ltd. KPMG Peat MarwickLogion (Netherlands) Los Alamos National Lab.Louis Berger GroupLucent TechnologiesMarsh Japan Inc.McKinsey & Co.Met-Mex Peñoles (Mexico) Mettler Consulting Mercantile Co. Ltd (Japan)Merck Microsoft’s Treasury Department Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. NASANational Reconnaissance Group (Virginia) New Balance Athletic ShoeNIPSCO Northrop GrummanDisney||Ontario HydroOracleOwens CorningPantektor AB Pareto Solutions PepsiCoPCA Life (Japan)PfizerPost Denmark Price Waterhouse CoopersProcter & Gamble RaytheonRiskAdvisory (Canada) SAICSara LeeShimadzu CorporationStarbucksSumisho Electronics Co., Ltd. Sun Life Reinsurance GroupSociety of Actuaries / Casualty TAP PharmaceuticalsThales Tillinghast Towers & PerrinToyotaTriangle Economic Research TRWTVA (Tennessee Valley Authority)UK Ministry of Defence UnileverUS Dept. of AgricultureUS Army Corps of EngineersUS SteelVerizonWestern Australia Department of Agriculture Wal-Mart StoresWestinghouseThe World BankWorld Conservation Union WhirlpoolXerox|
|PDF depicting U.S. Government departments with Palisade software licenses|